State of the Timberwolves

Wolves Drop Second Straight at Home

2006-02-11T11:59:00.000-08:00

The Wolves were beaten handily last night by the Jazz. It marks the umpteenth consecutive game in which they've had a scoring drought that seemed to last forever. KG struggled from the floor in his first game since being named to the All-Star team, going 7 for 17 and not taking a shot in the 2nd quarter. He did have 18 rebounds, though, and added 4 assists. Ricky Davis was off again, shooting only 7 for 21. This game seemed really bad for the home crowd. Once the Jazz opened up a double digit lead, the fans seemed uncomfortably inbetween booing and just being silent. The officiating felt a little lopsided, but I think that's just a testament to the fact that the Wolves don't get to the free throw line enough. This appeared to be a very quiet, but definite nail in the coffin for the Wolves season. Now 5 games under .500 and facing a road-heavy schedule from here on, the idea of the Wolves making the playoffs seems an increasingly impossible dream.

It seems like a few things have still not been decided by the Wolves coaching staff, such as when to rest KG. It seems like Coach Casey tries a new rest regime after games (like Wednesday night's loss to Cleveland) when KG seems tired at the finish. In last night's game, KG sat from about 9:00 left in the 2nd until 2:30 left. While he was out, the Wolves went from down 1 to down 7. where they ended the half. Then Garnett didn't rest again until a few minutes left in the 4th when he sat for about 2 minutes with the Wolves down double digits, then came back in for 3 minutes before sitting. The aforementioned crowd at least seemed to appreciate KG's apparent interest in the game a effort level, giving him loud applause for drawing a technical before leaving for good.

The Wolves defense, especially their backcourt defense was pretty bad in this game. They allowed Keith McCloud and Matt Harpring to handle the scoring load for Utah in the 2nd quarter. Marcus Banks is seeming like a worse fit for the Wolves than previously thought. He is quick on defense when he's trying hard, but he seems to take possessions off and leave shooters open from time to time from not rotating.

Wolves Lose at Home to Cavs

2006-02-08T21:12:00.000-08:00

LeBron James played huge in the 4th quarter and KG looked a little worn out. That essentially was the difference. The Wolves gave KG a few good looks in the 4th, but he shot 1 for 5. He came up short on 2 short jumpers from the lane, missed one turnaround, and was blocked by Ilgauskas on an up and under layup attempt in the final minute. He had to have been tired. He finished the game with 18 boards and 6 assists and switched onto LeBron James several times in the period. He also finished the game having played 45 minutes.

LeBron on the other hand, was huge down the stretch. He'd shot poorly all game, but in the 4th was almost unstoppable. He hit a big 3, a tough turnaround at the shot clock buzzer over Trenton, and he drove the lane for a clenching layup in the final minute. He also picked up a few assists in the fourth with big Z, Damon Jones, and Donyell Marshall also hitting shots. LeBron played 46 minutes, one more than KG, but seemed fresher down the stretch. He finished with 11 boards and 8 assists.

The only real problem spot for the Wolves in this game was the end of the third quarter. This was when LeBron started to get hot after starting the game 5 for 17 or something. Naturally, everyone became more focused on LeBron, especially when he went towards the basket. There were some hard double-teams and some cheating overs, but the Wolves had poor defensive rotation and left spot up shooters, Marshall and Jones, wide open to nail 3 pointers. Cleveland outscored Minnesota by 10 in the period, primarily because of that late flurry.

The only other numbers that jump out from this game are Ricky Davis' 29 shot attempts (does he need to take that many shots?), Mark Blounts 1 rebound in 12 minutes (is he really that bad of a rebounder?), Marko Jaric's 0 minutes via DNPCD (is he that far into the doghouse after starting the first 40+ games?), and Anthony Carter's 19 minutes and 6 assists. On the Carter numbers, it really seemes that he's the best Wolves guard at distributing the ball to KG and Ricky Davis. Marcus Banks id explosive and can score, but he's prone to mistakes and defensive lapses. A few plays that I remember include him not going hard after a ball on the ground near Ilgauskas, and him gambling for a steal that led to an open 3 pointer. Both were in the 4th quarter and both were costly. I know Carter and Banks are both short, but it might be interesting to try the lineup of KG, RD, Trenton Hassell, Banks, and AC for stretches. Seems like enough good guards in the NBa are uncomfortable backing a smaller player down that the Wolves wouldn't give up too many easy opportunities on defense. And I think that would be a terrific scoring unit.

This loss was bad because we need all the wins we can get. But the effort was there, and for the most part, so was the execution. It's good to know that even with KG being slowed offensively in the 4th, the Wolves were still hanging around. Oh well, Friday's game should be a good one.

PS - I blame myself for the loss. I was supposed to watch at home, but decided to do something else for the first half and watch only the second half. When I arrived, the Wolves led by 10 in the third quarter. They immediately lost that lead and Cleveland went on the previously mentioned run to lose the third, and the Wolves never led again. I blame myself for trying to just jump in for the good part. It won't happen again. Sorry guys.

Wolves Win a Thriller at Phoenix

2006-02-06T22:09:00.000-08:00

KG blocked the heck out of a Shawn Marion push shot at the buzzer to save a 103-101 win for the Wolves. Fans in Phoenix and the Suns players thought it was goaltending. It was definitely close, but having seen several replays of the block now, I'm comfortable with the call. Even before the critical block, KG came up huge down the stretch. After sitting the first few minutes of the 4th with 4 fouls, he scored his first points of the half on an alley-oop with a a few minutes left. He aggressively switched out to guard Steve Nash on pick and roll plays. I'm often skeptical of this play because I've seen Nash back off Garnett before and then shoot over him. But tonight, the play worked very well. Nash took a couple of uncomfortable looking shots, made some awkward passes and only found the mismatch in the post once or twice. It was a great physical and symbolic happening. The Wolves best player took on the Suns best player, despite being a 7-footer guarding a 6'1" point guard. In the last few Wolves possessions, Garnett made a pair of tough jumpers to extend the lead to 3 points after the Suns twice cut it to 1. This was the first game in a while that KG's action hero persona from his Adidas commercial has made a late-game appearance. That guy's good -- they should call his number a little more often.

This game had all kinds of interesting points, but the most important involved the rotation. Griffin and Jaric did not start for the first time in many games (for Jaric, it was his first non-start this season, I think). In fact, they didn't play, even with Mark Blount playing only a few minutes with neverending foul trouble. Madsen and AC started in their places, and Marcus Banks and Justin Reed got a lot of playing time. The starting unit played pretty well, but more importantly stayed aggressive and continued to play through an early Suns run that saw the Wolves trailing by 9 during the first quarter. I'd read from Coach Casey that they'd simplified the playbook and focused on a few plays. After being critical of his coaching for a few games, I now wonder again whether it really will simply take time for the Wolves to learn the system. The plays didn't look elaborate or special tonight, but they were run more cleanly. I can't think of any shot clock violations or glaring examples of hoisting up a bad shot just to beat the buzzer. Marcus Banks and Rashad McCants both played great on offense and really hustled on defense. McCants stayed away from the stupid fouls and turnovers that have marked his play most of the season. Justin Reed played solid defense on Marion and Boris Diaw, both of whom are really difficult to defend. Blount, as mentioned earlier, didn't play much because of foul trouble, but the other new guys were great.

But despite the heroics of KG and the great play of the new guys and the rookie, the game ball should go to Trenton Hassell. He's clearly growing into more of a scoring role with the team which is great. His moves seem predictable, but he plays well from the post and gets enough separation to be a pretty reliable scorer -- if he doesn't draw too many travelling violations on his spin move in the lane. But more importantly, he seems to be the one guy other than KG who really understands the offense and how to distribute the ball. When Banks was on the floor, it was Hassell who played more of the traditional point guard role. And in the 4th quarter when Garnett reentered the game, it was Hassell who found him for the alley-oop dunk that ogt him back into the offensive groove -- after going 5 for 6 in the first half, KG missed his next 3 shots before connecting on the dunk for his first points of the half with 5 minutes or so remaining. I've long referred to Hassell as Baby-G (H) -- there's no actual G in his name, but he plays like a smaller version of KG. He's intense, he's a great defender who works hard, and he's got a strong, if laboring, offensive game, like the Ticket. Last year when things wre going badly with the Wolves, it was reported that KG gave Hassell some harsh words for not playing as hard as he could be and should be. He seems to have responded and will be a big part of any success the Wolves will have for the rest of the season.

I'd forgotten what it felt like to be a happy fan. Consecutive losses make you need to deinvest from the team a little to avoid compounding sadness. But after the game-clenching block tonight I was elated and had lots of nervous energy. I miss that, so let's keep it coming Let's build on this, Wolves, and keep improving to be ready to take the West by storm after the All-Star break.

Wolves Blown Out at the Warriors

2006-02-04T22:10:00.000-08:00

The Wolves are in a state of complete disarray. A few weeks ago, KG said the team was in search of an identity. Each game it becomes clearer that he's right. Coach Casey has put an emphasis on defense this season. But tonight, they gave up 107 points to the Warriors, a sub-500 team which had lost its last several games. The offense continues to be atrocious. I suspect the postgame comments to include "still learning the sets" and "getting used to the system". Although it's getting a little annoying, it probably is true. I'm just losing hope in the season. I feel like the new objective is to keep KG with the team next year.

One note about KG and shooting more. It seems to be the consensus among basketball people that KG needs to take more shots because he's the team's best offensive option. It's generally assumed that he can create his own shot whenever he wants. I generally believe this also. But I watched him force a shot twice in tonight's game, and he looked really uncomfortable. The first occasion, he caught the ball at the tope of the circle. He pump-faked twice and then dribbled to his left, and shot a jumper from the free throw line that missed. On the other occasion, he had the ball on the left block. He was double-teamed and split the double but shot awkwardly from the paint -- there was at least one more defender in there to contend with. So I think while it's generally correct that the team would do better if KG shot more, I think his shot selection is pretty good on the whole. Nobody else seems to understand or agree with that. If KG took more shots just to take more shots, he'd be taking more difficult shots. I think you can count on one hand the number of times in a game he passes up a good shot. He takes almost all of the good shots he gets. But good shots for him aren't as easy to come by as they are for guards. Tim Duncan is in the same position. Both KG and TD have to work hard for position on the block or be open or work to setup a defender for a jump shot. Every game, KG tries to get as many easy baskets as he can, by running the floor and setting up foul calls. So when he doesn't shoot the ball "enough", I think it's the passing of teammates and the play-calling of Coach Casey that should come into question mostly. He's not going to just run out to the 3-point line and drive all the way in for a layup. He's got to work hard to get position, then have a guard recognize that he's open, and then have a reasonable pass made to get the ball. And if the defender plays him well, he may need to pass out and get the ball back. This rarely ever happens for KG but happens all the time for Duncan with the Spurs. So I think that categorically, KG shooting more is not the answer to the Wolves problems. Now, if we can just figure out what is...

brutal loss

2006-02-03T22:02:00.000-08:00

The Timberwolves lost 89 - 85 in Portland tonight. Kevin Garnett had a brilliant shooting game, going 12 for 13 from the floor. But he attempted no shots in the last 6:48 of the game. He did pass up some opportunities to shoot, but for the most part, it seemed that he was running the offense. He did post up a few times late in the game and was missed by the guards with the ball. It's strange. I watched the whole 4th quarter thinking this would happen a little. I listened to the announcers asking where Garnett had gone and saying he was coming up small at a crucial time. I figured Garnett would contribute in other ways and shoot as needed. But I had no idea that Garnett would have 0 shot attempts for the last 6 minutes. I don't think it's all on him (although some of it has to be), but it does make me question a few things. First, if Coach Casey wasn't telling the Wolves in timeouts to go to Garnett, then I think there's a problem. Second, if he told the team that and they couldn't get Garnett the ball, then there's another problem. It really didn't appear that Garnett didn't want the ball, despite him having given up the ball in situations where he could have shot. He just wasn't open on the catch and wasn't aggressively trying to score. I think it's just another underscore to his nature as a player. He was looking to make good plays. Anyway, this game hurt to watch and the Wolves really needed the win. The outlook for the rest of the season is a lot bleaker now.

One final miscue of note. On the Blazers final possession of the game with 29 seconds left, the Wolves forced a miss but couldn't get the rebound. There were 5 seconds on the clock when the Blazers got the ball, but Garnett only fouled Steve Blake with 0.3 left. Garnett should've fouled him earlier. He was kindof half-fouling him by bodying up on him in the corner, but a more blatant obvious foul was called for. I blame the coaching staff a little also -- seems like everybody should know to foul and anybody else could've come over and fouled while Blake was trapped. But it is really on Garnett. He played a ridiculous game, though, despite his stretch of non-shooting and his slowness to foul at the end. The state of the Wolves is very fragile right now. They really need to get something positive going before the All-Star Break, or 1) it would seem that the playoffs are out of reach again, and 2) Garnett's future with the Wolves would seem to be in doubt.

Same Old Story

2006-02-01T20:33:00.000-08:00

Tonight the Wolves lost another game by underscoring their opponent. They fell to the Pistons in Detroit, 90 - 74. Seventy-four points is not enough points to win a game in the NBA. I'll chalk it up to the new Wolves still learning the offense. I didn't get to see any of the game, but the box score reveals some interesting trends as far as minutes go. Marko Jaric played only 18 minutes and Eddie Griffin played only 22 minutes. Mark Blount and Marcus Banks, on the other hand, played 30 minutes apiece. Some of that probably reflects the fact that the game was a blowout and starters sat the 4th. But KG and Ricky Davis both had 30+ minutes. The schedule since the trade has been really rough and makes it hard to really evaluate whether the team improved or not. I still think and certainly hope they have. More importantly, this most recent loss seems to not have stung the players or Coach Casey the way previous losses have. There's still a positive air around the team right now, probably a buffer of rebuke afforded by the huge scale of the trade. In the end, that positivity may prove as important to the team's future success as the upgrade in talent. Let's carry the optimism into Friday's game at Portland. One game at a time. One game at a time.

Payback's a Bench

2006-01-30T20:59:00.000-08:00

The Wolves dominated the Celtics tonight in a game that featured 6 players facing their former teams. I missed the first quarter, but I heard the Wolves jumped out to a 10-0 lead from the tip. They also closed the half with a 12-2 run and the third quarter with a 9-0 run. For the first time I can remember this season, the game never appeared to be in doubt after halftime. KG had a modest game, but most of the other Wolves had big games. In particular the recent arrivals from Boston had big games. Marcus Banks, playing in his first game with the Wolves, scored 20 points and had 5 assists. He and Mark blount were clearly out to prove the Celtics made a mistake in cutting them loose. Blount was hot from the floor and wound up with 16 points and 10 boards. Justin Reed also played big minutes and defended Paul Pierce very well. He also leaked out for a couple of long outlet passes from KG on defensive rebounds. He was fouled hard both times and made all 4 free throws. Ricky Davis was quiet in the scoring column with only 9 points on 9 shots -- he shot 18 times in each of his first 2 games with the Wolves -- but chipped in with 5 boards and 5 assists along with good defense on Wally Szczerbiak.

The game was most notable, though, for the Wolves holding the lead they amassed by halftime. The Celtics never got within 8 points in the second half. Paul Pierce came out really aggressive, but Garnett kept putting points back on the board for the Wolves, hitting 5 of 6 free throws in the period. He was taken out with 2 minutes left in the 3rd and got the rest of the game off. In the 4th quarter, there were a few shots of him talking with Ricky Davis. All in all, this game showed a lot of improvement and offered some much-needed hope for this "new look" team. Without a question, the moves by McHale have resulted in a quicker and better defending team. If the offense can develop to the point of adequacy, the Wolves may finally have a consistent winning formula. But their next game is at Detroit, so maybe it'll be a little longer until we see it... or maybe not! ...But probably

Wolves Come Up Short Against Spurs

2006-01-28T23:05:00.000-08:00

The last couple of times the Spurs and Wolves played, KG outplayed Tim Duncan by a wide margin. San Anotnio still won both games. Tonight, Duncan won the matchup. But the outcome was the same. The Wolves led early, but trailed starting from the 2nd quarter. They stayed close, cutting the lead to 4 poitns several times in the 4th quarter. But then there was another run of bad shooting from the floor. The Wolves stopped scoring and the Spurs stopped missing, and the game slipped away over a short but explosive 2 minute stretch near the end of the game.

I know you're not supposed to beleive in moral victories, but there was a lot of good that came from this game. Ricky Davis played well again (although not quite as well as last night) and Mark Blount had a great game. Ricky Davis did a lot of little things that seem to bode well for the future. In the 3rd and 4th quarters, he was the one bringing the ball up much of the time. That's refreshing since he's also a primary scoring option. It means the Wolves avoid situations that arose in the past when Wally or KG would be unable to get the ball down the stretch. Earlier in the game, Davis showed good passing ability on both flashy and normal passes. That's also a great plus he brings, as Wally was an average passer at best. Mark Blount showed good touch from outside, nailing several jumpers when his man left him to double KG. That should help a lot down the road. And Garnett played great again on both ends, including in the 4th although I'd still like to see him take a few more shots in crunch time. Overall, I thought the Wolves played well, and I'm still excited to see how well they can play consistently in the next few weeks.

One big positive I saw in this game was the defense of the Wolves second unit. Once again, they played ferocious help and rotate defense. They were outscored by the Spurs, but they are without a doubt more athletic now. At least in these first couple of games, that has made a big difference for them. Justin Reed played his first minutes for the Wolves and played quality one on one defense. Mark Blount also played good defense. Maybe he's just motivated from the trade, but I really like what I've seen from him so far. Maybe a team like the Wolves where he can get his shots will be a good fit for him and keep him active and energetic. This game was as satisfying as a loss can be and was another solid step in validating the trade. Now, let's see the next several steps all come by way of victories.

The New Look Wolves

2006-01-27T21:58:00.000-08:00

It's only been one game, but I liked what I saw from the new guys. Tonight the Wolves beat the Rockets by 4. Like the old look Wolves, they had a big halftime lead that shurnk in the 4th quarter. But in the 4th quarter KG scored 15 and blocked a couple of shots, and Ricky Davis had a couple of big plays, including a put back, a block, and a key rebound. More importantly, the team looked more active on offense and defense. On offense, Ricky Davis penetrated and distributed the ball effectively in the half-court. He took pressure off of KG while they were in together, and when KG sat early with foul trouble he was the primary ball-handler and decision maker. He scored 26 on 18 shots and had 3 assists.

On defense, Davis didn't stand out much -- Hassel was on MacGrady all night and Davis got the other guy in the backcourt. But the rotations on defense were all quicker and I think Davis and Blount were both instrumental in that. There were a lot of defensive possessions where the Rockets would drive and kick out to an open shooter. But the Wolves rotation on defense would get out to the shooter, making him fake the shot and drive again. Garnett and Mark Blount/Eddie Griffin were near the basket, leading to uncomfortable midrange jumpers (nobody in the NBA can shoot the midrange jumper anymore except for Steve Nash and Andre Miller) and more passes outside. I started to come around a little on Coach Casey's defensive scheme. It seemed like all of the jumpers were contested by a hand or a Wolf flying into the path of vision. It seemed to really unsettle the Rockets. The rotation on interior passes wasn't as crisp, but hopefully that will work itself out in time.

Wally also had a good but more limited debut with the Celtics. As expected, Kandi didn't play and likely will not ever except under the most dire of circumstances. Maybe this trade will help out both teams. Of course of paramount importance is that it seems to have made a discernible difference in the Wolves already. They are in fact a quicker, more athletic team now. For at least one night, they played with energy and fought hard at the end to secure the win. I think all Wolves fan's, even the Wally lovers, hope this is a preview of wht's to come from this new-look squad.

Trade!

2006-01-26T19:42:00.000-08:00

Tonight, the Wolves made a 7-player trade with the Celtics. Minnesota sent Wally Szczerbiak, Michael Olowokandi, and rookie Dwayne Jones to Boston in exchange for Ricky Davis, Mark Blount, Marcus Banks, and Justin Reed. TNT has slammed the trade, saying it does nothing for either team. I feel bad about it initially, but mainly because I thought the Wolves were going to be able to trade Olowokandi for value without trading Wally. I think Wally had really started to come around this season, and KG had mentioned publicly at least once that he and Wally knew how to play with each other now from being together for several years. It's a shame that KG will have to get used to new teammates again. Additionally, I don't know if any of the other players the Wolves got aside from Davis (more on him below) will contribute at all. They were either D-league players or bit-part role-players on a bad Celtics team. Maybe McHale sees something in one of them that nobody else does. Finally, I'm sad that Rashard McCants wasn't a part of this deal. It seems like the Wolves could've dealt him and tried to get one of Boston's young big guys, Kendrick Perkins or Al Jefferson. I guess they're both probably untouchable but I was hoping that if Wally had to go (and I'm not convinced he did, but I can see it) they'd get something special in return.

All that being said, I like Ricky Davis -- a lot. He's always been a tremendously talented player with a less than stellar reputation. I think in the past few years his reputation has come into step with his talent level. He plays hard consistently from what I've seen and heard, and he's an average to above average defender. Maybe more importantly, he's a playmaker/creator. He and Garnett should play well together, I think. I think they'll both create easier scoring opportunities for one another. Also, there will now be 2 players capable of drawing lots of attention and creating easy shots for the other Wolves. On the whole, I like the acquisition of Davis a lot. A few weeks will tell whether it was an upgrade over Szczerbiak given the fact that he has to be integrated into the offense and defense. But I now like the Wolves defense more, and their intensity and playmaking ability just got big upgrades. I hope it's the beginning of a beautiful friendship.

Memphis Blues

2006-01-25T21:54:00.000-08:00

The Wolves were beaten handily tonight on the road by the Grizzlies. The Griz built a huge early lead, primarily on a never-ending barrage of 3-pointers. There was some hot shooting involved, but most of the shots were uncontested. Memphis did a great job of exposing the vulnerability of the Wolves defense -- if you drive and then pass around the horn, you will get to a man who is wide wide open. The Wolves never got closer than 12 points the rest of the game, and ultimately lost by 20. They actually played hard and went on a min-run in the 4th quarter, spurred by a flurry of assertiveness from KG. Even though they weren't really that close, there was a feeling that the momentum was shifting towards them. Eddie Jones checked in for Memphis and scored 7 straight points to quiet that notion and the game was never seriously contested after that. But hopefully this game is a sign that Garnett is coming around to the idea of taking on more of the offensive load. He scored 29 points by running on the break, hitting free throws, making the occasional jumper, and a signature post fadeaway. There was a lot of positive energy for the Wolves when Garnett had it rolling in the 4th. Hopefully it's the start of a new trend. I know if it sticks around, the Wolves will start winning more than they lose.

On the whole, this game is much easier to take than most 20 point losses. Certainly that's in part because the Wolves lost by more last night to Detroit. But there were good things to take from this game, in addition to some spectacular plays that made it entertaining (and no, having Darko throw an alley-oop for a windmill jam by a guy who's name isn't worth learning because he's headed straight back to the D-league does not count as entertainment -- it was just an insulting extension of the agony). KG saved a bad alley-oop pass from Troy Hudson (who's back now after a few games out with the flu, which will help the Wolves a lot) on the break, turning it into a highlight dunk. It was only highlight worthy because the no look pass was thrown towards the free-throw line when Garnett was just outside of the restricted area. But he stretched and grabbed it and threw it down all in one smooth sick motion. It was awesome. Trenton Hassel also threw KG a nice alley-oop dunk in the half court set as part of the Garnett led min-run in the 4th. Rashad McCants had a behind the back move for a dunk on the fast break (although he definitely definitely travelled, even by NBA standards). And Eddie Jones, who plays for the enemy, had an awesome dunk in the lane. No, I don't generally like good plays by the opposing team, but it's a lot like a Grant Hill play from a while back when the Wolves played the Magic. Hill had been out for a few games and was playing well in one of his first games back. He drove the lane for a dunk, and then hung on the rim and glared at KG when he came down. KG glared back for a minute -- but then the scowl faded and he smiled and laughed to himself as if to say, I can't be mad at Grant Hill. Eddie Jones is in that same category, I think. Professional guy, goes about his business, good career, near the end. It's almost neat to see them still do amazing things from time to time.

The Wrath of Flip

2006-01-24T20:48:00.000-08:00

I didn't get to watch this game until the 4th quarter. When I arrived, there were 9:00 minutes to play, the Wolves trailed by 15 or so, and Kevin Garnett was on the bench. I still had some faint hope that they would go on a late run. KG never reentered the game. As a result, this game watching experience goes into my bottom 10 all-time. Here's the complete stage. I was watching at a bar with some friends and some other acquaintances. Generally when there's a Wolves game on I watch first and converse second. Unfortunately, I was supposed to be playing host for my friends with this big group of people they don't know that well. So I felt guilty about watching, but watched anyway. There game was shown on a Detroit feed, so the highlights were all pro Pistons. Also, there was no sound. This went from annoying to unbearable because they kept showing shots of KG on the bench looking despondent and watching his teammates get obliterated. The Pistons played their starters for some of the 4th and the lead ballooned to 20 and then 30. I saw at least 2 airballs by the Wolves in that time, maybe more, and a couple of turnovers. Detroit's starters gave way to Darko and Co. with about 4 minutes to go and a 28 point lead. The Wolves subs were all in, including Bracey Wright for what I think was his first NBA action ever. During the all-subs portion of the game, 2 of the Pistons' nobody's dunked, including one play I'll never forget. Darko stole a Wolves outlet pass from a defensive board, and threw the ball cross-court to a cutting Piston who threw down a ridiculous windmill dunk. The Wolves, meanwhile missed and missed and missed. The Target Center was almost empty, but when the Wolves did score next, they cut to a woman and child in the stands. The woman clapped her hands, seemingly just to remember what it was like, as she looked off somewhere appearing dazed and disbelieving. It should've been better to not hear sound because I'm positive there were unrelenting boos from whoever else did stick around to see the tail end of the massacre. But I filled it in subconsciously and felt my mood sink lower as the time ticked so slowly away. I didn't want to watch, but I thought I had to, almost out of loyalty. Thinking of KG having to sit on the bench and watch this left me no choice.

The worst thing about this game was that the Wolves led by one at the half. Again, I didn't see it, but I'm sure they had opportunities to be ahead by double-digits and couldn't capitalize. That's been the theme of the season. At this point, I just want to stop thinking about the team and watch numbly hoping they win. I suppose that slowly my expectations are lowering so that the next ugly win I'll be really happy about and the losses I'll be oblivious to. But like any doomed man, I have that glimmer of hope. I believe that Kevin Garnett is one of the all-time greats, and I believe that the NBA is a superstar league. I know it doesn't seem like his way, but I think at some point in the rapidly-approaching second half, he will carry this team to the playoffs. I believe in it although I don't have any idea how or when. But maybe that's the best kind of faith for a fan, the kind that comes untethered to expectations. Here's hoping.

no magic number

2006-01-22T23:12:00.000-08:00

I tried to analyze the shots idea in a couple of ways. No matter how I did it, my hypothesis was wrong. For several different thresholds, I checked the correlation between KG's and Wallys shots being at or above the threshold and the Wolves winning. I tried values between 25 and 40, and for all, the correlation was small and often negative. I also tried correlating their combined percentage of the team's FGA's being over a threshold (between 35 and 50 %) with wins, but got the same result -- small correlation and negative. I tried the raw percentages and number of shots with point differential next. KG and Wally's shot attempts and pct of team shot attempts are both negatively correlated with point differential, KG's moreso. But interestingly, the number of total team shot attempts is negatively correlated with point differential. I guess this all adds up to me being wrong about thinking that KG needed more shots or at least KG and Wally together needed more shots. Perhaps it's a relief that it's not just that simple. One thing I looked at that seemed reasonable was that the average points per shot attempt (pts / FGA) for KG, Wally, and the Wolves are all positively correlated with point differential in a seemingly meaningful way. Once I come up with better numbers, I'll pick a format and post them here with the conclusions. So despite the fact that my beef was not statistically reinforced tonight, I will say that I think the player your owner calls the franchise should take more than one shot in the 4th quarter of a close game. When he doesn't, there's plenty of blame to be shared by him, his teammates, and his coach. I think if given a similar circumstance next game, KG will be more aggressive about taking shots. I hope Coach Casey will work on the playbook a little to make it easier for him.

...

2006-01-22T20:02:00.000-08:00

I'm not sure what to say. The Wolves lost a game they led by 19 points in the 4th quarter. How they lost was thrilling, but almost irrelevent. This marks at least the 4th straight game in which the Wolves led by double-digits and went on to win or lose by 6 or fewer. Worse yet, they've been playing worse teams than themselves, and are about to go through a pretty rough stretch against better clubs (Detroit, Memphis, and San Antonio).

Garnett took one shot in the 4th quarter and he missed it short -- a jumper from his office. He looked a little tight on the shot, but with such a small sample size who really knows if he was tight in the clutch. I really disliked the play-calling in the 4th, especially as the Sixers were making their run. The Wolves went to Trenton Hassell several times and Jaric drove the lane a couple of times. Wally didn't do much and KG didn't do anything. Bill Walton went on and on about how this game underscored the difference between Iverson and Garnett. I thought he made a valid point. As the game went on and the Sixers made a run, Iverson took all the shots. His attitude appeared to be, "if we're going to win this game, I'm going to bring it home for us." He forced all of the action and took the vast majority of the shots (although he did pass to a wide open C-Webb for a huge 3-pointer to give them the lead with under a minute). Garnett, he said, doesn't care who gets it done down the stretch, and was too willing to defer to his teammates during crucial possessions.

Walton's partners were quick to point out that Iverson is a guard and Garnett a forward, which makes it harder for Garnett to control his shot selection than Iverson. That's totally true. One thing that has been consistent over the last few games is that the Wolves run the same plays down the stretch as they run all game. They use KG as quarterback at the top of the key or the elbow. If he wanted to take a shot there, he'd have to beat the whole defense because if he looks for a shot, everybody's there and would collapse. Instead, he does what he does all game, which is pass to teammates in good offensive positions. I agree that he should be shooting more, but it should really come from different plays. The Wolves need to run the 1-4 offense at least a few times down the stretch. They need spacing that will give KG room to work and make any defender who double teams leave his man wide open.

Watching the end of the game left me really upset and I'm actually becoming upset again from talking about it. I'd like to hit on a few other interesting things that happened. ABC interviewed Glen Taylor at one point who was very complimentary of Garnett, saying he was untouchable with regard to trades and calling him the franchise. A few stats from the game jumped out at me also. All 5 starters for the Wolves scored in double figures, and all except for Eddie Griffin had double digit shot attempts (and Griffin had 9). I guess that kind of balance is good in general, but Wally and Kevin combined for only 31 shot attempts. That doesn't sound like enough, and I bet there's a number over 30 and under 45 that is a good predictor of whether the Wolves win or lose. This will be my first official stat on the site. I'll post it as soon as I've got it.

a painful win

2006-01-20T19:53:00.000-08:00

The Wolves stumbled their way to 90 - 85 win over the Jermaine O'Neal-less Pacers tonight. They led by as many as 13 in the game, but let the Pacers hang around up to the very end. The last minute was far more exciting than it should have been. Down by 8, the Pacers hit a 3. The Wolves inbounded to Marko who hit 2 free throws, putting them up 7 with 22 seconds remaining. Then the Pacers hit another 3, trimming the lead to 4. The Wolves inbounded to Wally who hit 2 free throws -- back up 6 with 11 seconds left. The Pacers were out of timeouts, so they inbounded to a guard on the run who passed to the wing. But instead of the 3, the wing player, Jasikevicius, found Austin Croshere cutting to the basket for a dunk. And he was fouled. And he made the free throw. So the Wolves are up 3 with 8 seconds left. They take a timeout to setup the inbounds pass. I'm sure they drew it up for Wally or Marko with KG as a bailout option. Instead the ball was thrown in to Eddie Griffin. He was wide open all alone, so it was a good decision. But he was thinking about passing before he caught it. He bobbled the ball, and the Pacers stole it and shot the 3 for the tie. But they missed and the Wolves won.

Of all of the disappointing 4th quarters I've seen the Wolves play, this was probably the worst. They took the idea of blowing a late lead, which they've been reinventing all season, to an extreme and almost lost an 8-point lead with 33 seconds to play. And Tracy McGrady (I've heard him called T-Mac so often that my instinct is to spell his name MacGrady) doesn't play for the Pacers.

I honestly believe that moral victories are hollow and that the final score tells you whether you deserved to win. But this game makes me feel worse about the team than a blowout loss would have. Worse, it seemed like the team did have a lot of faith in getting the ball to Garnett to close out the game. There were shots by Anthony Carter, Ronald Dupree, and Eddie Griffin in the last 5 minutes when I just knew they were going to only let Wally or Kevin shoot. I understood Trenton Hassel taking shots -- they'd been using him in the post all game and are trying to develop him into their third scorer. But the other shots just confused me. When they did go to Garnett inside of 3 minutes, he went 0 for 2. He did miss the shots, and he could have made them. But I'd like to see them get him the ball earlier in the period next time and also in a dangerous spot -- like in his office on the left block -- early in the shot clock. There's too much passing and movement before he gets the touch -- once he does with 7ish seconds on the clock, he doesn't have time to setup his defender. He just picks a move and goes. I'd like to see him get the ball intending to hold it or pass for an immediate shot starting with about 15 seconds on the clock. Seems thhat if there's ever a time for him to catch and hold the ball, it's crunch time. Let him wind the clock down and set up his defender.

I'm confused about the team after this game in a way that I haven't been for a while. I hope this was just a bad game that they happened to win anyway, and that next time out they'll be more composed down the stretch and look to KG earlier. Hopefully Coach Casey is just working things out for the stretch run. But I know that if the team stops looking to Garnett in the clutch they are taking the ball away from their best everything -- playmaker, decision-maker, shot-creator, et al. If they think Garnett needs to do something different with the ball for the team to be more successful, then I'm all for that. But the ball needs to be in his hands in crunch time. If it's not, you're not giving the team the best chance to win.

CORRECTION FROM LAST POST -- Garnett was 0 for 5 in the 4th quarter of the Wolves' last game, not 0 for 8. He did, however miss his last 8 shots spanning the 3rd and 4th quarters.

a painful loss

2006-01-18T16:00:00.000-08:00

I almost wrote about this to begin my blog, but tonight's game gives me a perfect opporunity. The Timberwolves lost tonight, 103-96 to the Boston Celtics. They started out great. KG had a quiet 13 points in the first quarter, including a half-court 3-pointer at the buzzer. After one, the Wolves led by 10, 32 - 22. A ten point lead in the abstract sounds great; after just one quarter, it seems like aabout the best you could hope for even for a really good team playing a bad team. But despite how well things were going, it seemed like the Wolves never really got any real distance from the Celtics. Paul Pierce was awful in the first quarter -- 1 for 7 -- and Ricky Davis was also cold. Trenton Hassel was on fire to help out KG and Wally (who was quiet, but not invisible) with the scoring. The defense looked pretty good and seemed in control. Everything seemed great, except for the sinking feeling. That sinking feeling has been maybe the most constant thing about this team.

In the NBA, everybody makes a run. It's a popular tag line, but it's completely true. Every team has good players and people who can score. The good teams win consistently by building big leads when their opponent is playing poorly, and then withstanding the charge when their opponent makes a run. The Wolves just can't do this. They fail at both parts of the equation. When they should be up by 20, they're up by 12. And when they should be suffering a 7-0 run or a 15-6 run, instead it's a 15-0 run or a 25-7 run.

So it was tonight. In the second quarter, the Celtics second unit played most of the time. They played a lot harder on defense to slow down the Wolves hot shooting. They didn't score a lot, but they scored enough. The starters came back in to end the half, feeding off the second unit's energy, and the combination of hustle, garbage points, and better defense gave them a one-point advantage in the quarter. At the half, Wolves lead 55 - 46. The third quarter started with an offensive flurry from Pierce; he drove baseline for a dunk on the Celtics first possesion, then drove for an and-1 layup, then nailed a jumper. And the Wolves went cold. Garnett and Szczerbiak made some shots, but the team missed a lot more than it made. Momentum had swung to the Celtics, and at the end of the third, the Wolves led 73 - 69. Again, I guess it's better to be leading than trailing, but the fame felt like it was slipping away, predictably . The other important note at the end of the third was Garnett was 11 for 18 with 27 points.

The fourth quarter was a disaster. Pierce stayed in a good shooting zone and started getting the younger Celtics, primarily Kendrick Perkins and Al Jefferson, involved. The Wolves were looking for someone to make big shots as the game slowly got away from them. This is where you want and expect for Garnett to make his biggest contribution. But he didn't come through. He missed all 8 of his shots, scoring 2 points in the period. By my own admission (and blog title), I am a KG fan, so presumably you wouldn't expect to see me badmouth him now anyway. And I won't. He does share accountability for the loss -- had he made some of those shots, they probably would have held off the C's and won. But he had a huge all-around game. He played hard and well on both ends, and by midway through the 4th quarter, he looked tired. He wasn't moving as quickly or jumping as high. All of his shots were front-rim. But I digress.

This is the story of most Wolves losses this year. When they're good, they're not as good as they should be; and when they're bad, they're too bad. Maybe it's as simple as not playing good defense and offense at the same time. But whenever they're playing well, they can never really separate. And whenever the other team is playing well, they can't keep it together. KG is often at the center of this, but he's going to have his ups and downs. I think the success of the Wolves right now boils down to the team being great when he's on and ok when he's off. And right now that doesn't happen. And that's what makes the losses so painful. KG will play tremendously well, but the game stays in reach. And you have that sinking feeling that at some point he'll struggle. And you fear that when he struggles, the team will give the game away. And too often it does.

18 - 17, first in Northwest

2006-01-16T23:19:00.000-08:00

I went to the game today (yesterday) at Madison Square Garden against the Knicks. It was good and bad in several ways, but good in (I suppose) the best way. The Wolves won 96 - 90. I got to the game early and got to see the full shootaround before the game. I wonder how much the performance of a player in shootaround predicts their performance in the upcoming game. KG shot great in shootaround, and shot well in the game. Marko Jaric shot poorly in shootaround but in the game also shot 50%. I'm pretty certain that nobody keeps shootaround statistics (as well they shouldn't) so I can never formally answer this question, but I'll be on the lookout circumstantially at all games I go to from now on.

The actual game was pretty neat. The Wolves led by a little throughout the first half. Then they opened up a double-digit lead in the third quarter before the Knicks trimmed it to 9 to end the period. The Knicks made a big run in the 4th quarter, but the Wolves held them off. Troy Hudson hit big shots, most notably a deep 3 at the end of the shot clock with 7 seconds left and the Wolves clinging to a 2 point lead. That effectively ended the game. Garnett and Wally both played great games.

Rashad McCants got a lot of minutes again, following last Friday's game where he played a lot. McCants hit a few shots but made a few rookie mistakes, letting the shot clock expire without shooting and committing silly offensive fouls. I'm sure he's getting better and I guess he should be playing. It never feels like him being in the game actually helps the team, but I guess he'll be a better player commensurate with the playing time he receives. It makes you wonder, though, if he's getting time because the team is in rebuilding mode or because the teams wants him for the stretch run for the playoffs. I guess it doesn't have to be one or the other.
Olowakandi played only a few minutes and didn't shoot much. I likened his role in this game to that of Bobby Hill as "the Stick" in an episode of King of the Hill. It seemed as if he played just long enough and badly enough to motivate Eddie Griffin to play hard while he was on the floor.

The bad of this game was that Stephon Marbury went down with an apparent shoulder injury during that Knicks run in the 4th quarter. I like Steph -- I think he's a great player and has an unduly harsh reputation as being selfish. I really respect his effort and commitment to changing his game under Larry Brown and I think he's becoming a dominant player both mentally and physically. He went down after a hard screen set by Wally. At the time, I could tell a) he didn't see it coming, and b) Wally was frustrated about something that happened earlier and was releasing some steam or sending a message or something. I didn't think the play was dirty -- or at least no dirtier than any other screen where the screener adds a little umph. I feel bad for Marbury though. Knicks fans have such short tempers and memories and I think if he misses time or plays through the injury at a lower level, they'll turn on him like they did earlier this season. I feel like he was just starting to get their respect and approval and I hope this injury doesn't keep him out or set him back.

17 - 17, 2nd place in the Northwest

2006-01-15T11:30:00.000-08:00

On the heels on an unsightly stretch that saw them lose game after game in which they held a 4th quarter lead, the Timberwolves have now won 2 games in a row. The last game against Denver was really interesting. It began with Garnett being unstoppable. He made his first 5 shots, and wound up 8 for 10 for the first half. He made athletic and difficult shots as well as a few open jumpers. At halftime the Wolves led by 1. Garnett stayed hot making his first 3 shots of the 3rd quarter. The Denver announcers even began quoting his season and career highs. But then a funny thing happened. (More on this later) He went into pass-first mode. He was very aggressively looking to get Wally Szczerbiak some open looks. He succeeded and Wally went on to have a huge third quarter, after he was ice cold in the first half. The Wolves ended the third with a 13 point lead. Commentators often talk negatively about the star player dominating the ball (ok, usually it's Kobe but I've heard it about Marbury and Wade as well -- although I only named guards, I think they say it about forwards sometimes, too...) while the others stand around and watch. In general, when you see it happen, you expect it to fail -- the star will miss eventually and then nobody else will have any rhythm to make shots. But superstars always seem to think that they can make it work and never never stop shooting voluntarily. They generally change after a timeout when, presumably, the coach brings it up. When they stop shooting they generally stop playing as hard too -- I ascribe that to simple human nature. But this superstar could feel the stagnation around him and of his own volition started passing up shots and working just as hard to get his teammates going (just to recap, KG was on fire, shooting 11 for 13 -- he finished 14 for 17 with 31 points). This game was a great counterexample for those who think that KG is "too unselfish".

The other notable thing that happened in this game was the timing of KG's rests. He didn't go out in the first half until 5 minutes or so left in the second quarter. He came back in with around 2 minutes left. That's a lot later than he generally gets his first rest. The second half was the same -- he left with about 5 minutes left in the game. I think he was supposed to be done at that point since the Wolves were up by double digits. But the offense ground to a halt without him and he came back in for a minute with 2 minutes to play. I wonder if this rest pattern was beneficial or whether the game would've been in hand either way. It seems like something interesting to watch out for as the season progresses.

Now back to pass first mode. I often feel like I can tell when a good offensive player is going from pass-first mode into shoot-first mode. I guess it must be an illusion; you'd think if an outside watcher could tell, then an opposing player could tell and would adjust accordingly. But nobody ever does seem to notice. Anybody else ever see this?